Risk perceptions in child protection

68 children a year were killed in the UK in 2019. In 21 cases the suspects were the parents or step-parents (ref).

The same year saw 650,900 referrals to social services (ref).

If we assume that each of those 21 children had been referred to social services (a big assumption; it may well be that children who are murdered are less likely to be referred), that would mean that social services were unable to prevent a child murder in 0.003% of referred cases (about 1 in 31,000).

For comparison, the risk of being killed by a motor vehicle in one year is 1 in 20,000, and in a lifetime is 1 in 240 (ref).

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